This past Monday, the director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies at the Goddard Space Flight Center, Hampton, Va., testified before the Congressional House Select Committee on Energy Independence & Global Warming. Director James Hanson’s testimony was twenty years to the day after he told a Senate hearing (on June 23, 1988) that global warming was already here. In his new address, Hanson stated that the world has long since passed the ‘dangerous level’ for greenhouse gases and that “we’re toast if we don’t get on a different path.” Earth’s atmosphere can only stay this loaded with CO2 for a couple more decades without catastrophic changes like mass extinctions, ecosystem collapses, and major sea level rises, says Hansen.
On Wednesday, the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the definitive energy data collection section in the Dept. of Energy, issued its Annual Energy Outlook (AEO2008). In this report, the EIA predicts that energy consumption in the world will rise by about 50% over the next two decades (2030), with similar rises seen in greenhouse gases. The data state that developed countries will see a 19% rise in energy use over this period, however demand for energy in developing countries will surge by 85%.
It’s difficult to envision either one of these integrally linked and yet diametrically opposed projections to becoming true. While the EIA’s projection could verify Hanson’s projection, the consequences could be severe. In testimony on Wednesday to the same panel that Hanson addressed on Monday, the Chairman of the National Intelligence Council, Thomas Fingar, stated that global warming could destabilize struggling and poor countries around the world and stress international trade in essential commodities. These changes could cause people to flee destabilized countries, with some turning to terrorism as an outlet for their rage.
Changes in the world’s energy use are obviously being made, but will the changes be made quickly enough to slow global warming? Most new electricity generating plants still operate or, worse, plan to operate on coal—one of the major sources of greenhouse gases. This needs to change. The technologies for dramatically reducing greenhouse gases already exist. The will and the economic incentives need to be created, enhanced, and promoted to make them much more attractive to everyone.
